Breaking into the Elite: Topuria vs Oliveira—Who Will Reign Supreme at UFC 317?
UFC 317, scheduled for June 28, 2025 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas during International Fight Week, features a landmark main event: former featherweight champion Ilia Topuria makes the leap to lightweight to challenge ex-lightweight champion Charles Oliveira for the vacant belt.
1. A Clash of Styles & Generations
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Topuria, undefeated at 16‑0, brings elite-level striking refined from his boxing-centric training, reminiscent of Canelo Álvarez’s precision. His recent knockouts over legend fighters like Volkanovski and Holloway solidified his “El Matador” persona .
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Oliveira, at 35, remains a veteran force with the UFC record for most finishes (20) and submissions (16) . Despite age and size concerns, his well-rounded arsenal and fight IQ keep him in the conversation .
2. What the Analysts Say
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Most experts favor Topuria, citing his elite striking and youth as decisive advantages. MMAmania and MMAMANIA predict a second-round TKO. talkSPORT echoes that sentiment, with many expecting a KO in round 2 or 3
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Still, Oliveira’s path to an upset remains: exploiting Topuria’s defensive flaws, particularly a vulnerable right side—seen in past fights against Jai Herbert—could tilt the balance
3. Stakes & Implications
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A Topuria win crowns a two‑division champion and sets up a possible welterweight run, possibly ahead of Islam Makhachev’s bid .
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Oliveira regaining the title would rewrite his legacy as a two-time lightweight champion and further augment his record-setting career .
4. Co-Main Event & Full Card Highlights
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Flyweight title: Champion Alexandre Pantoja defends against Kai Kara‑France. With dominant submissions and a seven-fight win streak, Pantoja is the clear favorite .
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Other key matchups include Beneil Dariush vs Renato Moicano (Dariush favored), Brandon Royval vs Joshua Van (Royval expected to submit), and Felipe Lima vs Payton Talbott (Lima likely via decision) .
5. Betting Odds & Scene Set-Up
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On DraftKings, Topuria is a heavy favorite (-455), with Oliveira the underdog at +350.
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Start times: early prelims at 6:30 p.m. ET, prelims at 8 p.m., main card at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV
